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master's thesis
METODE ZA PROGNOZIRANJE POTRAŽNJE U OPSKRBNOM LANCU
Diplomski rad
2021. urn:nbn:hr:145:874814
Pavelić, Ana
Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek
Faculty of Economics and Business in Osijek

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Pavelić, A. (2021). METODE ZA PROGNOZIRANJE POTRAŽNJE U OPSKRBNOM LANCU : Diplomski rad (Master's thesis). Osijek: Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics and Business in Osijek. Retrieved from https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:145:874814

Pavelić, Ana. "METODE ZA PROGNOZIRANJE POTRAŽNJE U OPSKRBNOM LANCU : Diplomski rad." Master's thesis, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics and Business in Osijek, 2021. https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:145:874814

Pavelić, Ana. "METODE ZA PROGNOZIRANJE POTRAŽNJE U OPSKRBNOM LANCU : Diplomski rad." Master's thesis, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics and Business in Osijek, 2021. https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:145:874814

Pavelić, A. (2021). 'METODE ZA PROGNOZIRANJE POTRAŽNJE U OPSKRBNOM LANCU : Diplomski rad', Master's thesis, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics and Business in Osijek, accessed 23 December 2024, https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:145:874814

Pavelić A. METODE ZA PROGNOZIRANJE POTRAŽNJE U OPSKRBNOM LANCU : Diplomski rad [Master's thesis]. Osijek: Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics and Business in Osijek; 2021 [cited 2024 December 23] Available at: https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:145:874814

A. Pavelić, "METODE ZA PROGNOZIRANJE POTRAŽNJE U OPSKRBNOM LANCU : Diplomski rad", Master's thesis, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics and Business in Osijek, Osijek, 2021. Available at: https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:145:874814

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Metadata
TitleMETODE ZA PROGNOZIRANJE POTRAŽNJE U OPSKRBNOM LANCU : Diplomski rad
Title (english)Methods of demand forecasting in the supply chain : Graduate paper
AuthorAna Pavelić
MentorDavor Dujak (mentor)
Committee memberJosip Mesarić (predsjednik povjerenstva)
Committee memberHelena Štimac (član povjerenstva)
Committee memberDavor Dujak (član povjerenstva)
GranterJosip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek
Faculty of Economics and Business in Osijek
Osijek
Defense date and country2021-06-02, Croatia
Scientific / art field,
discipline and subdiscipline		SOCIAL SCIENCES
Economics
Abstract
Prognoziranje potražnje je proces predviđanja buduće razine potražnje što spada u proces planiranja poduzeća. Prognoziranje potražnje obuhvaća veliki broj klasifikacija, no najpoznatija podjela prognoziranja potražnje je ona s obzirom na vrstu informacija. S obzirom na vrstu informacija postoje kvantitativne i kvalitativne metode prognoziranja potražnje. Kvantitativne metode uzimaju u obzir matematičke i statističke izračune koji su temeljeni na povijesnim podacima, kako bi se na temelju njih izvršila prognoza buduće razine prodaje s obzirom na dinamiku kretanja povijesne prodaje. Kvantitativne metode se mogu izvršiti putem analize vremenskih serija ili uzročno-posljedične analize. Kvalitativne metode prognoziranja predstavljaju metode koje se zasnivaju na stavovima, mišljenjima i percepcijama određenih stručnjaka, zaposlenika poduzeća ili kupaca putem anketiranja. Kvalitativne metode imaju veliki utjecaj u prognoziranju potražnje budući da je potrebno konstantno ispitivati tržište i omogućiti skupnu evaluaciju određenih varijabli na način da se angažiraju i ispituju stručnjaci ili zaposlenici poduzeća. Kvalitativne metode obuhvaćaju stručna mišljenja, istraživanje tržišta, Delphi metodu i analogiju životnog ciklusa proizvoda. Prognoziranja potražnje nikada ne mogu biti u potpunosti točna, stoga je potrebno utvrđivati i kvalitetu dobivenih rezultata korištenjem određenih mjera kvalitete. Najpoznatije mjere kvalitete prognoziranja su srednje apsolutno odstupanje, srednja kvadratna pogreška i prosječna apsolutna postotna pogreška. Prilikom prognoziranja potražnje važno je utvrditi s kakvom vrstom potražnje se poduzeće susreće. Na temelju vrste potražnje moguće je odrediti idealne metode prognoziranja potražnje. U primjeru poduzeća Borovo d.d. koje bilježi sezonsku potražnju, korišteni su sezonski indeksi, linearna regresija i određene mjere kvalitete prognoziranja kako bi se pokazao primjer izračunavanja i provjere metoda prognoziranja potražnje.
Abstract (english)
Demand forecasting is the process of predicting the future level of demand which is part of the business planning process. Demand forecasting includes a large number of classifications, but the most well-known classification of demand forecasting is the one according to the type of information. Given the type of information, there are quantitative and qualitative methods for forecasting demand. Quantitative methods take into account mathematical and statistical calculations based on historical data in order to make a forecast of future sales based on the dynamics of historical sales. Quantitative methods can be performed through time series analyzes or cause-and-effect analysis. Qualitative forecasting methods are methods that are based on the attitudes, opinions and perceptions of certain experts, company employees or customers through surveys. Qualitative methods have a great impact on demand forecasting as it is necessary to constantly examine the market and allow a collective assessment of certain variables through engaging with experts or employees of the company. Qualitative methods include expert opinions, market research, the Delphi method and product life cycle analogy. Demand forecasting can never be completely accurate, so it is necessary to determine the quality of the results obtained using certain measurement qualities. The best known measures of quality forecast are mean absolute deviation, mean square error, and mean absolute percentage error. When forecasting demand, it is important to determine what type of demand the company is facing. Based on the types of demand, it is possible to determine ideal demand forecasting methods. In the example of the company Borovo d.d. which records seasonal demand, seasonal indices, linear regression, and certain forecasting quality measures were used to show an example of calculating and verifying demand forecasting methods.
Keywords
Keywords (english)
Languagecroatian
URN:NBNurn:nbn:hr:145:874814
Study programmeTitle: Business economy; specializations in: Trade and logistics, Management, Logistic management , Business informatics
Course: Business informatics
Study programme type: university
Study level: graduate
Academic / professional title: Magistar/magistra ekonomije (Magistar/magistra ekonomije)
Type of resourceText
File originBorn digital
Access conditionsOpen access
Terms of useLicence In copyright icon
Created on2022-05-13 09:16:08