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master's thesis
Analiza inflacije i odabranih makroekonomskih varijabli u Republici Hrvatskoj za razzdoblje od 1998. do 2017.
2018. urn:nbn:hr:145:157438
Licht, Ivana
Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek
Faculty of Economics and Business in Osijek
Chair of National and International Economics

Cite this document

Licht, I. (2018). Analiza inflacije i odabranih makroekonomskih varijabli u Republici Hrvatskoj za razzdoblje od 1998. do 2017. (Master's thesis). Osijek: Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics and Business in Osijek. Retrieved from https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:145:157438

Licht, Ivana. "Analiza inflacije i odabranih makroekonomskih varijabli u Republici Hrvatskoj za razzdoblje od 1998. do 2017.." Master's thesis, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics and Business in Osijek, 2018. https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:145:157438

Licht, Ivana. "Analiza inflacije i odabranih makroekonomskih varijabli u Republici Hrvatskoj za razzdoblje od 1998. do 2017.." Master's thesis, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics and Business in Osijek, 2018. https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:145:157438

Licht, I. (2018). 'Analiza inflacije i odabranih makroekonomskih varijabli u Republici Hrvatskoj za razzdoblje od 1998. do 2017.', Master's thesis, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics and Business in Osijek, accessed 24 December 2024, https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:145:157438

Licht I. Analiza inflacije i odabranih makroekonomskih varijabli u Republici Hrvatskoj za razzdoblje od 1998. do 2017. [Master's thesis]. Osijek: Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics and Business in Osijek; 2018 [cited 2024 December 24] Available at: https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:145:157438

I. Licht, "Analiza inflacije i odabranih makroekonomskih varijabli u Republici Hrvatskoj za razzdoblje od 1998. do 2017.", Master's thesis, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics and Business in Osijek, Osijek, 2018. Available at: https://urn.nsk.hr/urn:nbn:hr:145:157438

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Metadata
TitleAnaliza inflacije i odabranih makroekonomskih varijabli u Republici Hrvatskoj za razzdoblje od 1998. do 2017.
Title (english)Analysis of inflation and selected macroeconomics variables in the Republic of Croatia for the time period between 1998 and 2017
AuthorIvana Licht
MentorĐula Borozan (mentor)
Committee memberĐula Borozan (predsjednik povjerenstva)
Committee memberIvana Barković Bojanić (član povjerenstva)
Committee memberAntoaneta Klobučar (član povjerenstva)
GranterJosip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek
Faculty of Economics and Business in Osijek
(Chair of National and International Economics)
Osijek
Defense date and country2018-09-17, Croatia
Scientific / art field,
discipline and subdiscipline		SOCIAL SCIENCES
Economics
Macroeconomics
Abstract
Održavanje stabilnosti cijena osnovni je cilj većine europskih središnjih banaka, pa tako i Hrvatske narodne banke. Održavanje predvidljive i niske stope inflacije od presudne je važnosti za gospodarski rast i razvoj. Cilj je ovog rada prikazati kretanje stope inflacije u Republici Hrvatskoj u razdoblju od 1998. do 2017. godine, te analizirati kretanje stope inflacije, nezaposlenosti, realnog bruto domaćeg proizvoda, deflatora BDP-a, M1 monetarne novčane mase, nominalnog efektivnog deviznog tečaja kune i srednjeg deviznog tečaja eura prema kuni (EUR/HRK). Cilj je i na temelju ekonometrijskih metoda izraditi modele koji povezuju inflaciju s odabranim makroekonomskim varijablama. Rezultati istraživanja su pokazali kako je stopa inflacije u promatranom razdoblju bila niska, bez većih anomalija. Za utvrđivanje veze između deflatora BDP-a (alternativne mjere inflacije) i M1 monetarnog agregata provedena je jednostavna linearna regresijska analiza. Rezultati su pokazali da za povećanje M1 novčane mase za jednu jedinicu dolazi do smanjenja deflatora BDP-a za 0,067, ceteris paribus, a što zahtjeva nove analize. U drugome modelu, višestrukom regresijskom analizom, ispitivana je veza deflatora BDP-a sa M1 monetarnim agregatom i nominalnim efektivnim deviznim tečajem kune. Rezultati su pokazali negativan utjecaj nominalnog efektivnog tečaja na deflator BDP-a. Posljednjim modelom ispitana je veza deflatora BDP-a sa M1 monetarnim agregatom i godišnjim prosjekom srednjeg deviznog tečaja EUR/HRK. Rezultati su pokazali da se smanjenjem tečaja EUR/HRK potiče porast inflacije, što se može objasniti značajnijim utjecajem tečaja na troškove proizvodnje, kao i pretjeranim reagiranjem monetarne politike uslijed „straha od plutanja“.
Abstract (english)
Maintaining price stability is the main goal of most European central banks, including the Croatian National Bank. Maintaining predictable and low inflation rates is of crucial importance for economic growth and development. The aim of this paper is to show the inflation trends in the Republic of Croatia from 1998 to 2017 and to analyse trends in unemployment, real gross domestic product (GDP), GDP deflator, M1 monetary aggregate, nominal effective exchange rate of kuna and middle exchange rate EUR/HRK. The goal is, also, to build models linking inflation with selected macroeconomic variables based on econometric methods. The research results showed that the rate of inflation in the observed period was low, with no major anomalies. A simple linear regression analysis was conducted to establish the link between the GDP deflator (alternative inflation measures) and the M1 monetary aggregate. The results have shown that for the increase of M1 monetary aggregate for one unit, GDP deflator is reduced by 0,067, ceteris paribus hence, further research is needed. In the second model, the relationship between the GDP deflator and the M1 monetary aggregate and the nominal effective exchange rate of the kuna were examined using a multiple regression analysis. The results showed a negative impact of the nominal effective exchange rate on the GDP deflator. The last model examined the relationship of GDP deflator with M1 monetary aggregate and the annual average of the EUR/HRK mid-exchange rate. The results have shown that by decreasing the EUR/HRK exchange rate, inflation is rising, which can be explained by the more significant impact of the exchange rate on production costs and by the excessive reaction of monetary policy due to "fear of floating".
Keywords
Keywords (english)
Languagecroatian
URN:NBNurn:nbn:hr:145:157438
Study programmeTitle: ECONOMIC POLICY AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Study programme type: university
Study level: graduate
Academic / professional title: magistar/magistra ekonomije (magistar/magistra ekonomije)
Type of resourceText
File originBorn digital
Access conditionsAccess restricted to students and staff of home institution
Terms of useLicence In copyright icon
Created on2018-11-26 13:23:40